When Milwaukee Brewers closed out a tense National League Division Series on Saturday night, the 3-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs delighted a packed crowd at American Family Field and sent Milwaukee to the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
It was October 11, 2025, and the series was tied 2-2. The winner would take the pennant race to the next round, while the loser would see another year of heartbreak. The final out came with a strikeout by a surprise starter, sealing the Brewers’ third postseason win in four games.
Game Recap and Key Moments
The early innings set the tone. In the top of the first, the Cubs jumped ahead with a solo homer by Michael Busch, marking his third leadoff home run of the postseason. Brewers manager Pat Murphy responded by shifting the lineup to prioritize contact hitters. By the third inning, the Brewers had loaded the bases twice and knocked in two runs on a clutch double by Luis Urías.
Mid‑game tension peaked in the sixth when Chicago loaded the bases with two outs. A rattling pop‑up to the left‑field wall seemed destined for a go‑ahead run, but the Brewers’ defense held, and the inning ended with a strikeout.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the seventh. A hard‑hit single by Colin Cowser drove in the final run, pushing the lead to 3-1. The Cubs managed a single in the eighth but couldn’t generate any more scoring opportunities. When the final out was recorded, the stadium erupted, and the Brewers celebrated a hard‑earned trip to the NLCS.
Pitching Strategies and Surprises
Perhaps the most unexpected storyline was the Brewers’ choice to start Trevor McGill out of the bullpen. Known primarily as a middle reliever, McGill was thrust into a starting role after the rotation was depleted by injuries.
McGill delivered seven solid innings, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out five. His fastball sat in the low‑90s, complemented by a sharp slider that kept Chicago’s power hitters guessing. The Cubs, meanwhile, relied on veteran Kyle Hendricks to keep the game close. Hendricks pitched five innings, yielding two runs and walking three, a performance that fell short of the Cubs’ postseason expectations.
Both teams’ bullpens were taxed late; the Brewers used three relievers to close the game, while the Cubs burned through their entire bullpen without finding the spark needed to mount a comeback.
Offensive Showdown: Brewers vs. Cubs
Statistically, the Brewers out‑hit the Cubs 9‑6 and posted a higher slugging percentage (0.481 vs. 0.362). More telling was the on‑base plus slugging (OPS) gap: .896 for Milwaukee versus .734 for Chicago.
Plate discipline played a huge role. The Brewers walked seven times compared to three for the Cubs and struck out only four batters, whereas Chicago struck out eight. The trend echoed the series‑long narrative: Milwaukee’s ability to foul off tough pitches and wait for a mistake, versus Chicago’s swing‑and‑miss woes on the road.
One standout performance came from veteran first‑ baseman Freddy Peralta, who drove in two runs with a two‑run double in the fourth inning. His timing and power gave the Brewers a cushion that proved crucial.
Betting Outcomes and What Went Right
Leading up to the game, sportsbooks listed the Brewers as -150 favorites, with the Cubs at +130. The over/under sat at 7.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of a tight, low‑scoring affair.
In the end, the final score of 3-1 hit the over/under under, rewarding bettors who took the “under” line. More interestingly, the spread was covered comfortably, as the Brewers won by two runs, exceeding the one‑run spread.
Prop bets also generated chatter. The most popular prop – “Will Michael Busch homer in Game 5?” – paid out at +250. Busch’s leadoff homer delivered, netting a solid profit for those who backed him. Another hot prop, “Will the game go to extra innings?” obviously lost, but it was a thoughtful risk for a series‑deciding game.
Analysts from DraftKings Network, who had originally projected a 55% win probability for Milwaukee, cited the Brewers’ superior contact hitting and bullpen depth as the decisive factors. Post‑game review confirms those expectations: Milwaukee’s contact rate (87%) dwarfed Chicago’s (73%).
Future Implications: NLCS Preview
With the win, the Brewers now face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers entered the NLCS on a 4‑1 record and boast a league‑best ERA of 2.78.
Experts predict a pitching duel, noting that the Brewers’ rotation, now thin, will likely lean on Corbin Burnes for a full start in Game 1. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will counter with ace Clayton Kershaw, who is returning from a brief rest.
For fans of the Cubs, the loss means another year of offseason restructuring. Management is expected to evaluate the bullpen’s performance, especially the lack of late‑game effectiveness that hampered their chances.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Brewers’ bullpen affect the outcome?
Milwaukee’s relievers combined for three scoreless innings after McGill exited, shutting down any Cubs momentum. Their ability to limit baserunners (two walks total) preserved the 3-1 lead and proved decisive in a low‑scoring game.
What were the key betting prop winners?
The most lucrative prop was Michael Busch’s leadoff home run, which paid +250. The “under 7.5 runs” prop also succeeded, as the final total was four runs, giving bettors a modest return.
Why did the Cubs fall short on the road?
Chicago’s road struggles stemmed from a high strikeout rate (8 K’s) and limited plate discipline, managing only three walks. Their inability to string together hits after early runs left them chasing a deficit they couldn’t close.
What does this win mean for the Brewers in the NLCS?
Advancing puts Milwaukee three wins away from a World Series berth. Facing the Dodgers, they’ll need to rely on their contact hitting and a deep bullpen to counter Los Angeles’ power‑laden lineup.
How accurate were the pre‑game betting odds?
The odds correctly identified Milwaukee as the favorite, and the spread was covered. However, the under/over line slightly overestimated run production, as the game finished well below the 7.5‑run projection.
